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Professor Ali Gamal Abdel gawad : The US dollar weakens against the Egyptian pound amid improved money supply and reduced buying pressure.

The US dollar weakens against the Egyptian pound amid improved money supply and reduced buying pressure.

 The exchange rate of the US dollar against the Egyptian pound (USD/EGP) reached 49.85 EGP, down by approximately 0.22 EGP, or 0.44%, during the session, continuing the downward corrective trend that began in recent weeks. This decline follows a weekly drop of 3.80% and a monthly decrease of 6.42%, reflecting a relative improvement in the balances of the exchange market and an increase in the supply of foreign currency compared to previous periods. The current performance also indicates a decrease in buying pressure on the dollar and the continuation of relative stability in the foreign exchange market.

 Technically, the pair is moving in a short-term downtrend after breaking several important support levels recently. The 50.00 EGP level has become a key psychological and technical resistance, followed by the 50.50 EGP and then 51.00 EGP levels. Support levels are located at 49.50 EGP and then 49.00 EGP, while the 48.50 EGP level represents a potential technical target if selling pressure on the dollar continues. The continuous decline over the week and month reflects a clear dominance of sellers, with the negative momentum persisting in the short term.

 Fundamentally, the dollar's performance against the Egyptian pound is linked to developments in dollar inflows from direct and indirect foreign investment, remittances from expatriate workers, tourism revenues, and Suez Canal revenues, in addition to the Central Bank of Egypt's policies regarding interest rates and liquidity management. The outlook remains stable with a downward bias for the dollar as long as trading remains below 50 EGP. However, a return above this level could lead to a retest of the 50.50-51.00 EGP range in the coming period.

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